Here in the United States, we have this belief that change will always be incremental and will touch others instead of ourselves. I lost that belief when I was driving through the wreckage of New Orleans trying to find a working gas station, six months post-Katrina. Change sometimes happens slowly. Like canaries in coal mines, those vulnerable and marginalized always feel its consequences first. But sometimes the shifts can be quite sudden and profound.
Right now four factors have me concerned that democratic institutions and rule of law will collapse within the next six years:
Hyperinflation
An expansionary Russia
Humanitarian crisis and grid outages on U.S. soil, caused by climate change
Overturning of Roe v. Wade
Any of the first three on their own could justify a State of Emergency and suspension of basic Constitutional rights. A cynical national leader could easily fan the flames with Putin (or his successors, if rumors are true and Putin is terminally ill) and land this country in conventional war or limited nuclear exchange.
But the fourth bullet point is the most immediately worrisome. Some believe that the end of Roe will galvanize a new women’s movement, but remember that the issues surrounding women’s right to reproductive health care is going to be fought state-by-state, election-by-election. Conservatives are pumped up and ready to make this a single issue for voters. In moderate and battleground states, the abortion issue is at least as likely to drive up turnout among voters who lean right as among those who lean left. And the anti-choice movement has already demonstrated they are better organized and tactically more savvy.
This isn’t really a political blog, and I don’t have a playbook ready so I am not going to spend a lot of time pontificating. All I have to say is that I expect (that is to say, I give this outcome more than 50% probability) than before the end of 2028, the last vestiges of democratic national elections and a free press will vanish. We will find ourselves living in a regime of overt fascism. Religious, ethnic, and racial minorities will find themselves scapegoated, along with queer and gender-diverse folks (such as yours truly) and women in general.
It will start with the next Congressional election, likely to be a landslide for Republicans. It will continue into the Presidential cycle, with Trump, or more likely his Anointed, running against a Democratic administration that is flailing even in its quest to find a competitive 2024 nominee. The fact that the last election was so close still boggles the mind. Far more troubling was the relative ease with which ICE was able to round up and hold adults and children indefinitely, many of them U.S. citizens.
My grandmother lived through Nazi occupation in Austria. To say, “it can’t happen again,” is to guarantee that it will happen again.
In the short term, Republicans wins next fall will be good for the stock market, if not necessarily the economy as a whole. So that’s a silver lining, of sorts. But it will be temporary at best. In the meantime, my best advice is to view the next 14 -38 months as runway. Sure, we are still coming back from the pandemic and the economy isn’t great, but there is no guarantee anything will be better or more stable down the line. Whatever is important to you, get it done.
Wishing everybody a Happy Fourth of July. I’m getting over COVID right now, so I won’t be out celebrating. Have a vegan hot dog for me.
Lotus Rose is not a registered investment, legal or tax advisor or a broker/dealer. All investment and financial opinions expressed on Lotus Trader are from the personal research and experience of the owner of this newsletter and intended for educational and informational purposes only. Although every effort is made to ensure that all information is accurate and up-to-date, occasional unintentional errors may occur.